New Ibec Quarterly Outlook forecasts strong growth
Ibec has recently published its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook Q3 2018, which forecasts strong growth of 4.5% in 2019 following growth of 7.8% in 2018. The 2019 growth forecast, however, is based on the assumption that an agreement is reached on Brexit. If this does not happen there is a risk of severe disruption across almost all areas of the economy with knock-on downside risks for our forecasts. Already we are beginning to see company margins squeezed by the depreciation of sterling and softening confidence impacting on investment in the most Brexit exposed sectors. In the absence of a Brexit deal, the growing uncertainty will cause these trends to intensify during 2019.
Despite the positive overall economic backdrop, Ibec analysis suggests that during 2019 we will increasingly approach a late stage in the business cycle globally. At home we are already seeing signs of the type of competitiveness loss which eroded previous periods of sustainable growth. If this is left unchecked, it has the potential to slow growth over the coming years and leave Ireland very exposed in the event of ongoing global trade turbulence or a future global downturn.
You can download the Ibec Economic Outlook here.